News

The Institute for Freedom and Community (IFC) at St. Olaf College released the “Minnesota CD-02 2024 exit poll.” The research was conducted by students enrolled in political science courses at St. Olaf. 

Student pollsters sampled 665 voters across 14 precincts in the 2nd Congressional District. 

The poll did a good job capturing partisan vote share in the district:

• 52.5 percent of exit poll respondents preferred Vice President Kamala Harris for president, compared with 51.7 percent of the district in the official total
• 58.2 percent of exit poll respondents choose U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, compared to 57.05 percent of the official total
• 56.1 percent of the exit poll respondents preferred U.S. Representative Angie Craig, compared with 55.5 percent of the official total

IFC Director Chris Chapp talks further about exit polling and the 2nd Congressional District (CD-02): 

What were the topics voters cared about most for this election?
Voters in CD-02 were divided on the most important issues in this year’s election. The most important issues were inflation/economy, abortion, election integrity/democracy, and immigration/border. Trump and Harris supporters were divided on what is the most important problem facing the nation, with over 55 percent of Trump voters reporting that the economy was the most important issue (versus 18.3 percent of Harris voters). An additional 24.5 percent of Trump voters listed immigration as the most important issue, while only 2 percent of Harris voters did so. In contrast, almost 31 percent of Harris voters reported that abortion was the most important issue (versus 4 percent of Trump voters). 20.7 percent of Harris voters listed election integrity/democracy as the most important issue, while only 3.4 percent of Trump supporters chose this option.

In short, this pattern reveals a stark divide in the policy priorities between Trump and Harris supporters.

Did voters in CD-02 mirror national trends, or is this district an outlier?
One pattern in voting behavior that has gotten a great deal of attention lately is the so-called diploma divide, whereby voters with a college degree increasingly prefer Democrats, and voters without a degree prefer Republicans. This pattern is also apparent in our data. Voters with a college degree preferred Harris by a roughly 60-40 margin, which is slightly larger than the gap in the 2024 national exit poll. 

Another question that pundits have been asking is whether there is a growing gender divide in politics. Our data support this conclusion, with 59 percent of women supporting Harris. 

This support among women and college educated voters was critical to Harris’s success in the district (though clearly these divisions worked in Trump’s favor elsewhere in the nation).

One notable difference from national trends involved partisan defection. We ask respondents — regardless of who they voted for — to self identify as “strong Democrat,” “lean Democrat,” “Independent,” “lean Republican,” and “strong Republican.” Harris won self-identified Independents with 52.5 percent, which is comparable to national exit poll numbers. Interestingly, a sizable portion of Republican leaners (17.4 percent) also supported Harris, while a comparatively small portion (7.1 percent) of Democratic leaners supported Trump. This was critical for Harris’s success in the district, and is different from national exit poll numbers, wherein Trump and Harris largely held their base. While this may be in part an artifact of differences in question wording, the gap is nevertheless notable.

What was an unexpected takeaway from this exit poll?
In an era of partisan polarization, split-ticket voting (that is, voting for different parties down the ballot) is increasingly rare. However, we observed a reasonably high amount of split-ticket voting in our sample. 9.7 percent of Amy Klobuchar’s support came from Trump voters, as did 9.3 percent of Angie Craig’s support. While Royce White did not substantially benefit from Harris voters, 7.8 percent of Joe Teirab’s supporters were also Kamala Harris supporters. 

What is the purpose of exit polling?
Exit polls inquire which candidates in political races voters supported and their demographic information, such as age, gender, race, and education. Additionally, exit polls are a way to gauge attitudinal and issue-based questions. These questions allow exit polls to illustrate the issues that mattered to different groups and how they voted.  

Importantly, exit polls are a great way to teach students about data analysis, polling, research ethics, sampling, and public opinion. At St. Olaf, students have the opportunity to participate in every aspect of a poll, from questionnaire design to data collection to data analysis. 

What is the geographical area that the 2nd Congressional District covers?
Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District encompasses the southern Twin Cities suburbs and southeast rural Minnesota. The counties included in this district are Dakota, Le Sueur, Scott, and parts of Rice and Washington. 

How does your work at St. Olaf College support civic engagement and education?
St. Olaf is deeply committed to civic engagement. We support numerous programs that get students involved in the surrounding community, and the global community more broadly. In fact, we have the highest student voter turnout in the nation. This doesn’t happen by accident! Opportunities like the exit poll we’re reporting on today are just a tiny sliver of what we do — opportunities to get involved off campus are really part of the DNA of the college.

Chapp is a professor in the Department of Political Science at St. Olaf College and the Morrison Family Director of the Institute for Freedom and Community. He teaches courses on American politics, parties and elections, and research methodology. He is author of numerous works on public opinion and political communication, including Religious Rhetoric and American Politics: The Endurance of Civil Religion in Electoral Campaigns (2012) and Moral Issues: How Public Opinion on Abortion and Gay Rights Affects American Religion and Politics (2024).