Experts at St. Olaf: 2026 Midterm Elections

The midterm elections are approaching as the United States enters the second year since President Donald Trump was re-elected in 2024. St. Olaf College Professor of Political Science and Environmental Studies Dan Hofrenning answers questions on what the general public should know for the 2026 midterm election:
What is a midterm election and who are voters voting on?
The midterm election is unique to the United States, as most democracies do not have them. Every two years, the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for election. Putting the entire House of Representatives up for election was the Founders’ way of designing a body closest to the people. With longer terms, the Senate is designed to be a little further away from the people. While the president is not on the midterm ballot, the congressional election is an important way for citizens to offer their appraisal of the president and the president’s party.
What are some important terms to know? What are their definitions? How will they relate to voters’ choices?
Political parties are organizations that choose candidates, run them in elections on a set of ideas, and seek to control government. No other group carries out those functions. Unlike many other countries, the United States has two dominant political parties.
Election administration is especially important this year. While the Constitution gives local governments the authority and power to run elections, President Trump is making an effort to federalize elections. This means the national or federal government would take over responsibilities such as voter registration and ballot counting. The only exception to this in history was the Voting Rights Act passed in the 1960s. The act gave the federal government some power to oversee elections in the South U.S, where there was strong evidence that they were denying citizens, primarily black citizens, the right to vote. That has been the only federal involvement in elections. We really have to pay attention to this effort by the president.
How do the results of the midterms impact the rest of a U.S. president’s term?
Almost always, the president’s party loses ground in midterm elections. The question is by how much. In 2018, when Trump was president, the Republicans lost significantly. The 2022 midterm during Biden’s presidency went much better for the president’s party, although Democrats still narrowly lost control of the House. If Republicans lose the House and/or Senate, that would be an important check on the president. President Trump would still be able to do a lot through executive orders, but passing legislation would become more difficult due to the conflict of interest between the president’s party and the party controlling Congress. If the opposing party were to win either House of Representatives or Senate, the president would have a lot less power than before.
How does voter turnout for midterms typically compare to the turnout in presidential elections? Why should someone vote during the midterm election?
Presidential elections get greater attention and turnout; there’s more coverage in the media and it is seen as a more nationwide battle with two main “combatants.” As a result, the midterm elections can feel smaller. Yet they are still important.
Voting in the midterms is the way to use your voice, and turnout plays a major role in determining political power. If one party features a greater dropoff in midterm turnout, they will lose power in government. As in all of life, showing up is really important.
How does your work at St. Olaf encourage knowledge and engagement in government elections and political campaigns?
I teach courses on political parties, elections, and American politics. Every four years in January, I take students to New Hampshire. This is just prior to the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, which has historically been the first in the nation during presidential elections. The course studies presidential campaigns, as well as the nominating process. I’d like to think that our courses lead people to participate in politics.
St. Olaf has a student body full of people interested in politics and voting. It is worth highlighting that St. Olaf won the 2022 Democracy Cup, which is a Minnesota-based competition that encourages voter turnout on college campuses. Out of the entire student body, 67 percent of students voted during the midterm election in 2022, with 90 percent of students generally registered to vote. There is clearly something in the culture of St. Olaf that encourages students to vote.
About Dan Hofrenning
Dan Hofrenning is a professor of political science and environmental studies at St. Olaf. He is the chair of both the Political Science and Environmental Studies departments. Hofrenning teaches courses that focus mainly on American politics. This includes campaigns and elections. He intertwines the environmental studies degree with political science by teaching courses for environmental politics.
Hofrenning has notably commented in several different print publications, as well as on radio and television programs — including the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio, and the New York Times. Hofrenning has written many articles and two books with varying topics such as religion, campaigns, and the issues of pedagogy. His most recent work, The Promise — and Perils — of American Politics, was published April 8, 2025. The book highlights political controversies and debates, and explores the American political system, its strengths, and its struggles.